Paranoia over swine flu H1N1

I must first admit that I am not a Physician, so my opinion should in no way be taken as medical advice. Now, on with the opinion.

Let us look at the facts about "regular flu", the one that comes around a few times a year to make us all miserable:

• The seasonal epidemic flu infects 3 to 5 million people world wide, killing nearly 500,000 every year. Even with 3 million infections and 500,000 deaths, that is a mortality rate of 0.17%. If the infection count is raised to 5 million, the mortality rate drops to 0.10%.
• Most of those who die (directly or indirectly) from the flu every year are children, elderly, and those who are immunocompromised.

There are some differences in this strain of flu (swine flu). Let's discuss the differences:

• It kills people in all age groups, but seems to have a preference for individuals who are young and healthy (not children, elderly, or immunocompromised).
• The infection rate is difficult to know because of a difference in "confirmed cases" and "suspected cases". Confirmed cases are where the DNA of a virus is verified to be the same strain as the "swine flu". Suspected cases often turn out to be "regular flu", as discussed above.

One thing which might make this flu more deadly is the "over reaction" of a healthy immune system, also known as a Cytokine storm. A Cytokine storm, in basic terms, is when your immune system mounts an over active response to an infection. Cytokine cells taking part in your immune response call for reinforcements. Your body responds by sending more immune cells to the infection site. Normally, your body keeps this reaction in check. Sometimes, for reasons that are not well understood, your body is unable to keep this reaction in check, and it results in a Cytokine storm. If prompt medical care is not received, the lungs can fill with fluid, and the oxygen exchange mechanisms (alveoli) can be permenantly damaged.

In certain instances a healthy immune system can actually be a liability, which is why some strains of flu kill more young healthy people.

Now that we have some information, what are we to do?

For myself, I am going to go about my business. I will be careful to avoid crowded places, and I will wash my hands often. I will keep myself hydrated, and eat healthy foods. In the event that I start having flu symptoms (fever, headache, fatigue, cough, sore throat, stuffy or runny nose, body aches) I will seek medical care immediately. Once I start feeling ill, I will quarantine myself from others. I will follow the doctors orders, without deviation.

My guess is that this first outbreak will be mild, but I think it will return in the fall. We need to study the mortality rates in "confirmed cases" to determine how deadly this virus is, and this needs to be done in the next 2 - 3 months.

If it is determined that this will have a high mortality rate, we must put in place contingency plans which will allow isolation (quarantine), social distancing, and medical treatment to minimize the human and economic cost of a pandemic in the fall / winter.

If we fail to prepare, or prepare inadequitly, we will find ourselves overwhelmed by this flu. Our already fragile economy could be pushed into deeper recession, possibly even another great depression.